Prediction markets indicate a 55.85% probability that Liang Mong-Song, a key SMIC engineer, will leave the company...
Prediction markets indicate a 55.85% probability that Liang Mong-Song, a key SMIC engineer, will leave the company within five years (Source 5).
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction markets indicate a 55.85% probability that Liang Mong-Song, a key SMIC engineer, will leave the company within five years (Source 5). This is corroborated by low probabilities for SMIC's technological competitiveness: only 4.61% chance of outcompeting TSMC by 2024 (Source 1), 15.39% by 2028 (Source 3), and 18.80% by 2033 (Source 2). Additionally, SMIC's chance of achieving 3nm by 2026 is only 11% (Source 4). While these are speculative probabilities, they collectively signal weak market confidence in SMIC's ability to retain top talent and close the technology gap with TSMC. A potential departure of Liang Mong-Song would severely hamper SMIC's advanced process development, likely benefiting TSMC in the foundry market.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.