Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates a 55.85% probability that Liang Mong-Song, a key SMIC executive,...

Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates a 55.85% probability that Liang Mong-Song, a key SMIC executive, will leave the company within the next five years (source: Manifold). This is coupled with low probabilities of SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2024 (4.61%), 2028 (15.39%), or 2033 (18.80%) (sources: Manifold 2024, Manifold 2028, Manifold 2033). Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm chips before 2026 is only 11% (source: Manifold). Liang Meng-Song is critical to SMIC's process technology development; his potential departure would significantly hamper SMIC's ability to compete with TSMC. The low probabilities for technological milestones further underscore SMIC's challenges. While these are speculative predictions, they collectively suggest negative sentiment around SMIC's talent retention and technological competitiveness.