Prediction markets on Manifold indicate significant risk for SMIC.

Prediction markets on Manifold indicate significant risk for SMIC. As of June 27, 2026, the market estimates only an 11% chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 (source). The probability SMIC outcompetes TSMC by 2033 is 18.8% (source), while the near-term 2024 probability is just 4.6% (source). Most notably, there is a 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song will leave SMIC for another semiconductor company within 5 years (source). Liang's departure would be a major talent loss for SMIC, hampering its ability to close the technology gap with TSMC. This talent risk, combined with low investor confidence in SMIC's technological progress, signals downside for the company.