Manifold markets put low probability on China's SMIC outcompeting TSMC: 15.37% by end-2033, 11.64% by end-2028, and...
Manifold markets put low probability on China's SMIC outcompeting TSMC: 15.37% by end-2033, 11.64% by end-2028, and 4.61% by end-2024 (source — the 2024 market appears stale/resolved no).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
0981.HK has already moved down -17% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
Manifold markets put low probability on China's SMIC outcompeting TSMC: 15.37% by end-2033, 11.64% by end-2028, and 4.61% by end-2024 (source — the 2024 market appears stale/resolved no). Together these imply the prediction-market crowd expects SMIC to remain behind TSMC in leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing through the next several years. For AI-infra and export-restriction monitoring, this is a signal that SMIC's process-technology gap persists, which feeds into China's reliance on alternative/legacy nodes and restricts domestic AI accelerator scaling. Direction is down for SMIC's relative competitive position, but the signal is low-confidence and sentiment-based. No official foundry capacity or yield data is cited. Spillover to TSMC (advantage) and NVIDIA (continued TSMC dependency) is plausible. Watch for any official SMIC capacity/technology announcements or export-policy changes that could move these odds.
What the sources said:
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.