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2026-08-06·SMIC·foundry competitive loss
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Three Manifold markets assess SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC over different horizons: 4.61% by 2024 (source), 11.64%...

Three Manifold markets assess SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC over different horizons: 4.61% by 2024 (source), 11.64% by 2028 (source), and 15.37% by 2033 (source).

window 90devidence 3confidence score 71price 0981.HK $66.20

confidence score

Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class.

71
medium confidence1 independent source classesmarketmedium high without independent sourcespasses publish gate
priced-in check

0981.HK has already moved down -17% over the recent 30-90 day window.

partly priced
as of 2026-08-107d n/a45d n/a90d -14%yahoo

signal brief

Three Manifold markets assess SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC over different horizons: 4.61% by 2024 (source), 11.64% by 2028 (source), and 15.37% by 2033 (source). The consistently low probabilities indicate trader consensus that SMIC will not overtake TSMC's manufacturing technology leadership in the foreseeable future, despite China's massive semiconductor investment. This suggests continued TSMC dominance in advanced nodes, a key factor in the AI supply chain. The outcome supports the view that export controls and technical hurdles limit SMIC's progress, making TSMC's advanced packaging and leading-edge processes more critical for AI chips.

What the sources said:

  • "Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024? YES=4.61%"
  • "Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028? YES=11.64%"
  • "Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033? YES=15.37%"

source data used

spillover entities

TSM

Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.