The Manifold prediction market as of 2026-07-05 indicates strong investor confidence in TSMC's future.
The Manifold prediction market as of 2026-07-05 indicates strong investor confidence in TSMC's future.
confidence score
Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class.
TSM has already moved up +28% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
The Manifold prediction market as of 2026-07-05 indicates strong investor confidence in TSMC's future. Key probabilities: 99% chance TSMC's market cap reaches $1T by end of 2025 (already likely achieved) Source 12, 76.41% chance of $2T by end of 2026 Source 3, and 58.58% chance TSMC dominates semiconductor manufacturing for the next 10 years Source 7. Geopolitical risks are seen as low: only 3.49% probability of a US ban on advanced AI chips to China Source 1. This consensus signals a bullish outlook for TSMC's valuation and market position, with positive spillover to key customers like NVDA, AMD, AAPL, AVGO, and potential negative impact on competitors SAMSUNG and INTC.
What the sources said:
- Source 12: "YES=99.00%" for TSMC market cap >= $1T end of 2025.
- Source 3: "YES=76.41%" for TSMC market cap >= $2T end of 2026.
- Source 7: "YES=58.58%" for TSMC dominating semiconductor manufacturing next 10 years.
- Source 1: "YES=3.49%" for US ban on TSMC advanced chips to China in 2025.
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.72%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=76.41%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.