Manifold Markets prediction market data from July 8, 2026 shows a 99% consensus that TSMC's market cap will reach or...
Manifold Markets prediction market data from July 8, 2026 shows a 99% consensus that TSMC's market cap will reach or exceed $1 trillion by end of 2025 (source 12).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
TSM has already moved up +28% over the recent 30-90 day window.
signal brief
Manifold Markets prediction market data from July 8, 2026 shows a 99% consensus that TSMC's market cap will reach or exceed $1 trillion by end of 2025 (source 12). Similarly, probability of $1T by end of 2026 is 94.72% (source 2), and $2T by end of 2026 is 76.41% (source 3). The market also assigns 58.58% probability to TSMC dominating semiconductor manufacturing for the next 10 years (source 7). Meanwhile, the probability of a US ban on TSMC selling advanced AI chips to Chinese companies in 2025 is only 3.49% (source 1), suggesting low perceived regulatory risk. These consensus probabilities, while from prediction markets rather than official statements, indicate strong investor and expert confidence in TSMC's valuation, market position, and growth trajectory.
What the sources said:
- Source 12: 'Manifold consensus on Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?: YES=99.00%'
- Source 2: 'Manifold consensus on Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?: YES=94.72%'
- Source 7: 'Manifold consensus on Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?: YES=58.58%'
- Source 1: 'Manifold consensus on US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?: YES=3.49%'
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=94.72%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=76.41%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.