signal type · other
export restriction
Every published export restriction signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh export restriction calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
52
published only
direct hit-rate
29%
7 scored predictions
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a export restriction signal?
A export restriction signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged export_restriction by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published export restriction signal
2026-07-15 · BABA · up · medium
A Tom's Hardware article reports that the U.S. government has allowed Chinese telecom ZTE to purchase Nvidia H200 AI...
2026-07-15 · NVDA · down · medium
Nvidia has significantly tightened its authorized customer list in Asia to curb AI chip smuggling into China, cutting...
2026-07-14 · NVDA · down · medium
According to a Financial Times report citing sources, Nvidia has intensified due diligence and reduced its authorized...
2026-07-11 · BIDU · down · low
On June 9, 2026, Baidu acknowledged its inclusion on the U.S.
2026-07-11 · BABA · up · low
A Reddit post citing a South China Morning Post (SCMP) report indicates that China is planning to allow selected...
2026-07-10 · GOOGL · down · low
A Financial Times report on July 10, 2026, alleges that Google and OpenAI have been selling AI models to entities in...
2026-07-09 · NVDA · up · medium
Multiple reports on July 8-9, 2026 indicate that China is planning to permit a handful of its AI companies to buy a...
2026-07-04 · ASML · down · low
As of July 4, 2026, Manifold Markets consensus on multiple questions reveals significant geopolitical risk for ASML.
2026-07-04 · ANTHROPIC · up · high
The US government has lifted export restrictions on Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, as reported by CNBC...
2026-07-03 · ASML · down · low
As of July 3, 2026, multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate a heightened probability of further US...
2026-07-03 · ASML · down · low
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 50% probability that the US will force ASML to halt exports to...
2026-07-02 · BIDU · down · medium
Baidu (BIDU) was included on the U.S. Chinese Military Companies (CMC) list as of June 9, 2026, according to the...
2026-07-01 · NVDA · down · medium
Recent reports indicate that Taiwanese authorities have raided Supermicro's offices and detained an Albatron GM as part...
2026-06-30 · ASML · up · low
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold (as of June 30, 2026) collectively indicate a low likelihood of US-imposed...
2026-06-29 · ASML · neutral · low
On June 28, 2026, ASML Holding N.V. issued a denial regarding the sale of an EUV chipmaking tool to China, following a...
2026-06-28 · OPENAI · down · medium
On June 25, Hacker News reported that OpenAI will delay GPT-5.6 after a request from the Trump administration (source...
2026-06-28 · ANTHROPIC · up · medium
The Trump administration has partially rescinded its export ban on Anthropic's AI models, according to a Politico...
2026-06-28 · ANTHROPIC · up · high
The Trump administration has partially lifted the export ban on Anthropic's most advanced AI model, Mythos 5 (also...
2026-06-28 · BIDU · down · low
On June 9, 2026, Baidu responded to its inclusion on the U.S.
2026-06-27 · OPENAI · down · high
On June 26-27, 2026, multiple authoritative sources reported that OpenAI has limited the release of its new GPT-5.6...
2026-06-27 · ANTHROPIC · neutral · high
On June 26, 2026, the US government partially lifted restrictions on Anthropic's Mythos 5, allowing deployment to over...
2026-06-25 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
On June 18, 2026, Anthropic received an export control directive from the Trump administration ordering it to suspend...
2026-06-24 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
The US government has banned Anthropic's latest AI model, Fable, under new export controls, marking the first time an...
2026-06-23 · BIDU · down · low
Baidu (BIDU) was included on the U.S. Chinese Military Companies (CMC) list as of June 9, 2026, as noted on its...
2026-06-23 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
On June 12, 2026, the U.S. government barred foreign nationals from accessing Anthropic's latest AI models, Fable 5 and...
2026-06-22 · BIDU · down · medium
On June 9, 2026, Baidu responded to its inclusion on the U.S.
2026-06-22 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
The US government has banned Anthropic's latest model, Claude Fable, citing concerns over Chinese access to the...
2026-06-21 · BIDU · down · low
Baidu was added to the U.S. Department of Defense's Chinese Military Companies (CMC) list on June 9, 2026, as indicated...
2026-06-21 · ASML · down · medium
The US government has expressed concern to ASML that one of its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines may be...
2026-06-21 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
The US government has banned Anthropic's new Claude Fable model, as reported by multiple outlets on June 18-20, 2026.
2026-06-20 · ASML · down · medium
The US government, via Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, has expressed concern that an ASML EUV lithography system may...
2026-06-20 · ANTHROPIC · down · medium
On June 19, 2026, the Trump administration imposed export controls on Anthropic's latest model, Fable, limiting access...
2026-06-19 · ASML · down · medium
On June 19, 2026, Bloomberg reported that the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick questioned ASML leaders about...
2026-06-19 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
On June 18-19, 2026, multiple sources reported that the US government ordered an export control ban on Anthropic's...
2026-06-18 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
On June 12, 2026, the Trump administration imposed export controls on Anthropic's latest frontier AI models, Fable 5...
2026-06-17 · BIDU · down · low
Baidu, through its investor relations page, acknowledged its inclusion on the U.S.
2026-06-17 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
The Trump administration imposed export controls on Anthropic's most advanced AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, citing...
2026-06-16 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
On June 15, 2026, Anthropic received a US export control directive ordering it to suspend access to its recently...
2026-06-15 · AMZN · down · low
The US government issued an export control directive suspending access to Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models,...
2026-06-15 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
On June 14–15, 2026, the Trump administration issued an unprecedented export control directive ordering Anthropic to...
2026-06-14 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
On June 13, 2026, the U.S. government issued an export control directive requiring Anthropic to block access to its...
2026-06-13 · AAPL · down · medium
Four Republican lawmakers urged the U.S. International Trade Commission to block imports of TSMC-made chips that...
2026-06-13 · ANTHROPIC · down · high
On June 12-13, 2026, the U.S. government issued an export control directive ordering Anthropic to suspend all foreign...
2026-06-11 · BIDU · down · low
Baidu (BIDU) has been included on the U.S. Department of Defense's Chinese Military Companies (CMC) list, as indicated...
2026-06-09 · BIDU · down · low
On June 9, 2026, Baidu confirmed its inclusion on the U.S.
2026-06-09 · BABA · down · medium
The U.S. Department of Defense added Alibaba to its 1260H list of Chinese military companies on June 8-9, 2026, as...
2026-06-07 · NVDA · up · low
A Manifold Markets prediction market as of June 7, 2026, shows a 19.27% consensus that NVIDIA will be allowed to sell...
2026-06-03 · TSM · down · low
A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows only a 3.49% consensus that the US will ban TSMC from selling advanced AI...
2026-06-02 · NVDA · down · medium
Multiple sources, including Tom's Hardware and Bloomberg, report that Chinese military-linked institutions have sought...
2026-06-01 · NVDA · down · high
On June 1, 2026, the U.S. government announced a new measure to block Nvidia AI chip shipments to Chinese companies...