As of July 3, 2026, multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate a heightened probability of further US...
As of July 3, 2026, multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate a heightened probability of further US export restrictions against ASML.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
As of July 3, 2026, multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate a heightened probability of further US export restrictions against ASML. Source 1 shows a 50% consensus that the US will force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029. Source 8 shows a 50% chance the US will cut ASML off from Cymer before 2030, which would disrupt ASML's EUV light source supply. Meanwhile, the probability that China already possesses an ASML EUV machine is only 16.7% (Source 2), suggesting current restrictions remain effective. These market probabilities, though not firm decisions, imply traders see material risk of revenue loss for ASML in the China market and supply chain vulnerability. If restrictions deepen, ASML's growth outlook could face headwinds.
What the sources said
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.