signal type · other
new product launch
Every published new product launch signal with its public hit-rate inline. Belongs to the other family, which means fresh new product launch calls borrow confidence from sibling types in the family until they earn their own sample.
all-time signals
200
published only
direct hit-rate
—
no scored predictions yet
family hit-rate
40%
15 across other
family
other
see signal-families.ts for mapping
definition
What is a new product launch signal?
A new product launch signal is any High-Signal-published call tagged new_product_launch by the ingest pipeline. The exact extraction rules live in python/ingest and the family rollup in /methodology. Every published instance carries ≥ 2 independent sources per the cite-or-kill rule.
every published new product launch signal
2026-08-13 · AAPL · up · low
Manifold's prediction market 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?' has reached 77.34% YES, indicating...
2026-08-13 · XAI · up · high
SpaceXAI (xAI) introduced Grok Bot on August 12, 2026, an AI agent service that runs in its own cloud-based computer...
2026-08-13 · AAPL · up · low
Manifold consensus gives 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source).
2026-08-11 · AAPL · up · low
The Manifold question 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?' (source) is trading at 77.34% YES.
2026-08-10 · AAPL · up · low
A Manifold prediction market assigns 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source).
2026-08-10 · AAPL · up · low
The Manifold market 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?' is at 77.34% YES, indicating strong market...
2026-08-10 · BABA · up · low
Alibaba is accelerating AI product commercialization.
2026-08-09 · ANTHROPIC · up · medium
Anthropic is pushing autonomous coding agents into the default path for paid users, and quietly staffing up for a major...
2026-08-08 · TCEHY · up · low
Tencent integrated its Hy3 large language model into the international edition of WorkBuddy, marking the model's first...
2026-08-07 · TCEHY · up · medium
On 5 Aug 2026, Tencent rolled out its flagship Hy3 model worldwide through WorkBuddy, Tencent Design Miora, and...
2026-08-07 · BABA · up · medium
Alibaba (BABA) released Qwen3.8, a 2.4-trillion-parameter open-weight model, on Aug 4, 2026, according to TechNode, and...
2026-08-07 · GOOGL · up · low
Polymarket traders assign 71.5% probability to the next Google Gemini Pro model being released by August 31, 2026...
2026-08-06 · SAMSUNG · up · high
At FMS 2026, Samsung unveiled a next-generation AI memory roadmap featuring the industry's first concept models of zHBM...
2026-08-06 · TCEHY · up · medium
On August 5, 2026, Tencent expanded its flagship Hy3 large language model internationally, integrating it into the...
2026-08-06 · MRVL · up · low
At FMS 2026, Marvell announced a memory-infrastructure portfolio targeting AI inference scaling in hyperscale data...
2026-08-06 · BABA · up · medium
On August 4, 2026, Alibaba unveiled Qwen3.8, a 2.4-trillion-parameter foundation model, and integrated it into the...
2026-08-05 · AAPL · up · low
A Manifold prediction market indicates a 77.34% consensus that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-08-05 · AAPL · up · low
A Manifold market on whether Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 is trading at 77.34% YES.
2026-08-05 · SAMSUNG · up · medium
At FMS 2026, Samsung unveiled a 3D memory roadmap aimed at AI infrastructure.
2026-08-05 · TCEHY · up · medium
Tencent is accelerating its AI push with the wider international rollout of its flagship Hy3 model through WorkBuddy,...
2026-08-05 · AMZN · up · medium
Amazon Web Services announced general availability of Web Search on Amazon Bedrock for foundation model grounding.
2026-08-05 · BYTEDANCE · up · low
ByteDance launched SeedRealtime, a native audio-video full-duplex model, and has already integrated it into the Doubao...
2026-08-05 · BABA · up · medium
Alibaba unveiled Qwen3.8, a 2.4-trillion-parameter foundation model, with improvements in coding and workplace tasks,...
2026-08-04 · BABA · up · high
Alibaba unveiled Qwen3.8-Max on August 3-4, 2026, a 2.4-trillion-parameter foundation model it calls its most powerful...
2026-08-04 · AMD · up · medium
At AMD's Advancing AI event, the company's Helios rackscale system has officially entered production, according to...
2026-08-04 · AAPL · up · low
Manifold traders put 77.34% probability on Apple releasing an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-08-03 · DEEPSEEK · up · high
DeepSeek released V4-Flash-0731 on July 31, 2026, a 304B lightweight open-source model that media reports say surpasses...
2026-08-03 · BABA · up · medium
Alibaba has officially launched Qwen3.8-Max, its largest and most capable AI model to date, with 2.4 trillion total...
2026-08-02 · DEEPSEEK · up · medium
DeepSeek has publicly released the V4-Flash API in beta, a retrained, agent-focused version of its previously previewed...
2026-08-02 · BYTEDANCE · up · medium
ByteDance has shipped Seedance 2.5, the newest iteration of its Seed video-generation model, according to TechNode and...
2026-08-01 · AAPL · up · low
A Manifold prediction market currently prices a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in...
2026-08-01 · GOOGL · up · medium
Google Cloud published its July 2026 AI infrastructure and orchestration roundup (Source 42), documenting a broad...
2026-08-01 · AAPL · up · low
Manifold traders assign a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-07-31 · AAPL · up · low
A Manifold prediction market tracking whether Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 currently sits at...
2026-07-30 · AAPL · up · low
A prediction market indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026, suggesting...
2026-07-30 · AAPL · up · medium
A Manifold prediction market shows a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-07-30 · AAPL · up · low
A Manifold prediction market currently assigns a 77% probability to Apple releasing an AI chip for iPhones in 2026...
2026-07-30 · AAPL · up · low
A Manifold prediction market shows a 77.34% probability that Apple will release a dedicated AI chip for iPhones in 2026...
2026-07-29 · AAPL · up · medium
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones...
2026-07-29 · AAPL · up · medium
A prediction market assigns a 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source).
2026-07-29 · AAPL · up · low
A Manifold prediction market shows a 77.34% consensus that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-07-28 · AAPL · up · medium
A prediction market on Manifold, with 77.34% consensus, indicates Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-07-28 · AAPL · up · low
A Manifold prediction market indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-07-28 · AAPL · up · high
A prediction market on Manifold indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-07-28 · TCEHY · up · medium
Tencent has introduced an AI-powered version of its classic QQ Pet virtual companion, integrating its in-house Hunyuan...
2026-07-28 · AMD · up · medium
AMD held its Advancing AI 2026 event on July 27, unveiling a slate of new data center products including the Instinct...
2026-07-27 · AAPL · up · medium
A Manifold prediction market suggests a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-07-26 · AAPL · up · low
A prediction market on Manifold shows a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026...
2026-07-26 · AAPL · up · medium
A prediction market on Manifold assigns a 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an AI chip for iPhones in 2026.
2026-07-26 · BABA · up · low
Alibaba is reportedly testing a new standalone product called Qwen Office, positioning it as an AI-powered workplace...