A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in...

A prediction market on Manifold Markets shows a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 source. This signal, while speculative, indicates growing consensus that Apple is moving toward custom AI silicon for edge devices. If realized, this would mark Apple's deepening integration of AI hardware into its product line, potentially reducing reliance on external suppliers like Qualcomm for modems and shifting chip demand toward TSMC for fabrication. The high probability suggests informed participants expect an official announcement or product integration within the next two years. While no official confirmation exists, such a move aligns with industry trends toward on-device AI processing. The signal is low confidence due to the single source being a prediction market rather than a company announcement, but it is actionable for monitoring Apple's silicon roadmap and its impact on semiconductor supply chains.