markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.81%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Colombia?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Egypt?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=12.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Argentina (-2.5)': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Egypt?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina leading at halftime?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=64.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 7?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Egypt?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=14.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 7?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Colombia?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Contrexeville: Elina Avanesyan vs Alicia Herrero Linana': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Egypt?': YES=3.60%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 7?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Contrexeville: Alice Tubello vs Yufei Ren': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 7?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group A': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Matt Olson win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Egypt?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Egypt?': YES=2.70%