markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
- 2026-04-28Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=11.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-28Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=15.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?': YES=34.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=16.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=14.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=7.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=3.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=8.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=6.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=28.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=4.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=28.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=17.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=3.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=39.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-04-28GTA VI released before June 2026?
Polymarket consensus on 'GTA VI released before June 2026?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-28Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=48.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-28Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-28Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-28Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-28New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-28New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-04-28Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket Manifold consensus on 'Will a new, full-length Stargate series premiere in 2023?': YES=2.14%
market:manifold