markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Stargate project work?': YES=56.66%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?': YES=10.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?': YES=27.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic cover costs of electricity price increases from its data centers before 2028?': YES=64.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any data center in the United States be powered by a nuclear reactor by Nov 2028?': YES=32.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Lumen Orbit have at least one functioning megawatt-scale data center in space by the end of 2028?': YES=6.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA maintain a >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 8 quarters by the end of 2026?': YES=78.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA maintain a >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 4 quarters by the end of 2025?': YES=90.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Lumen Orbit have at least one functioning megawatt-scale data center in space by the end of 2027?': YES=2.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?': YES=39.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?': YES=33.38%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?': YES=15.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will data center technicians still be necessary in 2027?': YES=92.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?': YES=74.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?': YES=36.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?': YES=23.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?': YES=9.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?': YES=35.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?': YES=41.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the pope bless a data center before 2026?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on '5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.': YES=94.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center?': YES=17.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?': YES=7.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2044?': YES=77.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=4.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2034?': YES=53.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=63.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?': YES=16.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Doom if AGI by 2040?': YES=45.00%

Manifold consensus on 'The probability of extremely good AGI outcomes eg. rapid human flourishing will be >24% in next AI experts survey': YES=63.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2032?': YES=49.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the EU announce new emergency AI regulations or an AGI development pause before May 1, 2026?': YES=13.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?': YES=97.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=28.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?': YES=95.04%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=9.00%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=43.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?': YES=13.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?': YES=88.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?': YES=69.97%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic or OpenAI introduce a US$2000 per month consumer-facing plan in 2026?': YES=29.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI still own the number 5.3 before May?': YES=92.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?': YES=14.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=13.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=52.72%