markets

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=26.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027?': YES=8.89%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?': YES=36.85%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?': YES=97.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028?': YES=74.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?': YES=65.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=15.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=33.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=8.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=26.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=9.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%