markets

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?': YES=9.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?': YES=96.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?': YES=49.85%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2029?': YES=92.60%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?': YES=7.21%

Manifold consensus on 'First OpenAI + io hardware product wearable?': YES=23.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will The New York Times win its copyright infringement suit against OpenAI and Microsoft?': YES=57.92%

Manifold consensus on '🧑‍⚖️ Will The New York Times Win A Lawsuit Against OpenAI & Microsoft?': YES=54.64%

Manifold consensus on 'On June 1, will OpenAI be valued higher than Anthropic?': YES=39.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?': YES=59.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?': YES=10.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?': YES=27.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO by 2040?': YES=88.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Another OpenAI whistleblower dies of unnatural causes before 2027': YES=21.76%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI announces an interactive world model by June 1st 2026?': YES=14.55%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=28.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Musk–OpenAI lawsuit go to trial?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?': YES=98.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?': YES=8.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=8.40%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=28.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=33.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=32.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2026?': YES=88.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?': YES=19.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Sohu AI chip ship to customers within a year?': YES=2.61%

Manifold consensus on 'US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?': YES=3.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?': YES=8.02%

Manifold consensus on 'China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?': YES=53.68%

Manifold consensus on 'US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026': YES=52.72%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Extropic AI demonstrate a working thermo-chip by 2050?': YES=80.39%