markets

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?': YES=93.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=71.67%

Manifold consensus on 'AI chip to 1 GW in 100 days before 2032?': YES=62.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026': YES=96.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=35.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=28.21%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=14.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=24.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=56.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=54.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=56.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=40.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the 2026 CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform Nvidia / NVDA over the next 6 months?': YES=50.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=56.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=31.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=16.98%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=16.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=75.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket consensus on 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%