markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Groq chip inspire Nvidia/AMD to produce radically new AI chips before 2026?': YES=2.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?': YES=77.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=35.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=28.21%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=34.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=14.19%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=41.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=13.93%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=19.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=11.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.60%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=53.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=25.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=18.27%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=72.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.33%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?': YES=80.15%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA market cap exceed 10 trillion USD at any point in time before January 1, 2030?': YES=74.27%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?': YES=98.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?': YES=0.10%