markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=28.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=2.34%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5': YES=78.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 2 DR Congo?': YES=5.60%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Dino Prizmic': YES=72.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kingston Flemings win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 0 - 1 DR Congo?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 1 DR Congo?': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance': YES=91.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=43.80%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 2 DR Congo?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 0 DR Congo?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance': YES=84.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Lanlana Tararudee': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. DR Congo: England O/U 1.5': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 0 - 2 DR Congo?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Christian Anderson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-2.5)': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=22.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 0 DR Congo?': YES=0.10%