markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=28.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=2.34%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance': YES=83.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=38.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Shuai Zhang': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Argentina (-1.5)': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?': YES=4.80%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 1 DR Congo?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs McCartney Kessler': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Austin Reaves play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 1?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 0 DR Congo?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 1 DR Congo?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Botic van de Zandschulp': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=46.20%

Polymarket top market 'United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?': YES=34.00%