markets

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=52.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=1.23%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Algeria?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=80.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Austria: O/U 3.5': YES=34.13%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers': YES=35.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Austria?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Grigor Dimitrov': YES=64.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Croatia?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Portugal (-1.5)': YES=33.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jaume Munar': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?': YES=86.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Austria?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alex Molcan': YES=97.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?': YES=29.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?': YES=12.00%