markets

Manifold consensus on 'Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?': YES=17.58%

Manifold consensus on 'AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?': YES=9.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=14.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?': YES=30.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2027?': YES=3.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=21.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?': YES=2.40%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?': YES=38.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Half-Life 3 before AGI?': YES=74.05%

Manifold consensus on 'What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?': YES=17.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI': YES=53.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Metaculus' strong AGI question too weak?': YES=75.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=44.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026': YES=24.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=30.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=16.63%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?': YES=35.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?': YES=20.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?': YES=90.92%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?': YES=4.84%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?': YES=84.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?': YES=52.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?': YES=70.28%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI or Anthropic 2028 revenue at $3T+': YES=10.69%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=19.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=25.32%

Manifold consensus on 'OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027': YES=55.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?': YES=8.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI IPO before 2027?': YES=21.83%

Manifold consensus on 'If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?': YES=92.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?': YES=0.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=15.39%

Manifold consensus on 'If China invades Taiwan, will the ratio of Nvidia market cap to TSMC market cap be greater than 3 after two months?': YES=79.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=18.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=30.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%