markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=30.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?': YES=83.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs 9z (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao Fonseca': YES=22.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Egypt?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=83.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Egypt?': YES=6.30%

Polymarket top market 'Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?': YES=73.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: BIG vs MIBR (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iva Jovic': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 3?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 3?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.50%