markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-19Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?': YES=31.75%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=4.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Spread: Spain (-2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Spain (-2.5)': YES=6.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=72.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Exact Score: Any Other Score?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Any Other Score?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19Lionel Messi: 3+ goals
Polymarket top market 'Lionel Messi: 3+ goals': YES=2.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=12.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luciano Darderi': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=46.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5': YES=41.25%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5': YES=69.25%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19Spread: Spain (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Spain (-1.5)': YES=20.75%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?': YES=42.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=9.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=59.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=40.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?': YES=26.75%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-19Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-19Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance': YES=59.25%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=40.50%
market:polymarket