markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Palermo: Federica Urgesi vs Elizara Yaneva': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=11.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20?
Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Hamburg European Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula Badosa': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=50.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings
Polymarket top market 'New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wings': YES=67.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Palermo: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=8.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=33.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=32.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=4.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Estoril Open: Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinez': YES=5.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=7.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=92.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
Polymarket top market 'Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?': YES=99.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=27.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=41.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=8.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket