markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.65%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?': YES=71.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?': YES=90.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=7.30%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Level UP vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?': YES=3.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?': YES=98.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?': YES=3.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?': YES=2.80%

Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=4.40%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Team Jenz (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%