markets

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.65%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=5.20%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: FUT Esports vs Pcific Esports - Map 2 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-07-22?': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-07-22?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'The Hundred, Women: Southern Brave vs Welsh Fire': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group A': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=26.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 22?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?': YES=6.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Syntax vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A': YES=97.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bohemian FC win on 2026-07-22?': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22?': YES=87.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=10.40%