markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: EDward Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders': YES=73.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Team Vitality vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=7.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=4.40%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=10.70%

Polymarket top market 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)': YES=63.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=11.40%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5)': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=54.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%