markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=18.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 24?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=4.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 24?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?': YES=94.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 24?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=0.40%
GOOGLmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?': YES=99.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=63.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=71.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=42.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
Polymarket top market 'Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=24.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=74.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=8.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket