markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?': YES=12.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 24?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Blue Otter vs Cupid Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=9.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=3.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=9.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Conviction vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=13.40%