markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?': YES=4.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?': YES=99.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 25?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?': YES=7.70%

Polymarket top market 'Pesternikov Denys vs. Shcherbak Denys': YES=99.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Livesport Prague Open: Tereza Valentova vs Daria Snigur': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=12.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: DENDELE CS vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%