markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by August 31?': YES=31.00%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=43.20%

Polymarket top market 'Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO5) - VCL Japan Season Finals Playoffs': YES=24.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 27?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Benched gods - Map 1 Winner': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=49.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=4.30%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=71.00%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=52.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?': YES=2.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 26?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-07-26?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will XRP reach $3.00 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 26?': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Wildcard (+1.5)': YES=36.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?': YES=35.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?': YES=9.00%