markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=34.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Nvidia?': YES=37.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=58.15%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 27?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 27?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=84.00%

Polymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins': YES=61.00%

Polymarket top market 'Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=6.40%