markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=68.13%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=66.05%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?': YES=58.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August?': YES=99.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?': YES=4.50%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by August 31?': YES=17.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?': YES=6.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Acend vs 6666 (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group C': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by September 30?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?': YES=79.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?': YES=43.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?': YES=21.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=45.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Map Handicap: TS (-2.5) vs MOUZ (+2.5)': YES=32.00%