markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
- 2026-08-042026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Sara Bejlek vs Iga Swiatek': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Zeu5 Esports vs 3v Team (BO5) - LRN Playoffs': YES=59.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=88.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?': YES=99.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Canadian Open: Zachary Svajda vs Denis Shapovalov': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-04Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova': YES=30.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?': YES=99.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?': YES=6.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'The Hundred, Women: Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies
Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-04Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Leo Team (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Leo Team (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market '0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?': YES=90.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds
Polymarket top market 'Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs': YES=93.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=53.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=84.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-08-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-08-04?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 5?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=85.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?': YES=88.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Slavia Prague win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies': YES=29.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Hagen: Carlos Taberner vs Juan Bautista Torres': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs': YES=66.00%
market:polymarket