markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by August 15?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?': YES=5.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-04?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 3?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?': YES=10.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-04Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=72.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-04Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-04Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Polymarket top market 'Will GameStop acquire eBay?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-08-03?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 4?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=98.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on August 4?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=27.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=73.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 4?': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-042026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Zeu5 Esports vs 3v Team (BO5) - LRN Playoffs': YES=85.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=77.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles': YES=99.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Warsaw: Marcelina Podlinska vs Vendula Valdmannova': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=6.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Canadian Open: Terence Atmane vs Jack Draper': YES=33.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 4?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket