markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=24.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 6?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=4.40%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-06Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Polymarket top market 'Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=89.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Ethereum Up or Down on August 6?
Polymarket top market 'Ethereum Up or Down on August 6?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-06Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-06Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Valorant: Wolves Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Juncheng Shang': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5)': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO5) - LCP Group Stage': YES=0.80%
SOFTBANKmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang': YES=94.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 6?': YES=70.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?': YES=6.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?': YES=94.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarket- 2026-08-06New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
Polymarket top market 'New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-06Istanbul 2: Gijs Brouwer vs Yanki Erel
Polymarket top market 'Istanbul 2: Gijs Brouwer vs Yanki Erel': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=70.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=6.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 6?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins': YES=66.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=70.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 6?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-06Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=46.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket