markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=92.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?': YES=69.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?': YES=10.00%
GOOGLmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 8?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 1 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Phantom (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 10': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=79.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 3 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-08-07?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-07?
Polymarket top market 'Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-07?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-08Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 3.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 2 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 3-9?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-08Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=40.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-08-07?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 0 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 0 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 2 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will FC Juárez win on 2026-08-07?
Polymarket top market 'Will FC Juárez win on 2026-08-07?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 1 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=99.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 2 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=98.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: 1. FC Cologne 3 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Iran leadership change by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by August 31?': YES=4.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
Polymarket top market 'Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=89.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket