markets

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=76.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.44%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=65.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=67.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.81%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?': YES=1.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market 'Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by December 31?': YES=20.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?': YES=52.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bournemouth win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 10?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 10?': YES=35.00%