markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=47.00%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=47.00%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=59.67%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Todi: Daniel Galan vs Federico Agustin Gomez': YES=42.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?': YES=59.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Dream Esports vs Capybara Esports (BO3) - LPLOL Group Stage': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Astralis (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima': YES=67.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 12?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=83.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Team Falcons Win The International 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)': YES=47.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FaZe (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=48.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Darwin Blanch': YES=60.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 12?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto
Polymarket top market 'Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: JD Gaming vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=77.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=99.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?': YES=87.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=56.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-12Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?': YES=87.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket