markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?': YES=12.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?': YES=51.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?': YES=51.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=37.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?': YES=24.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?': YES=36.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first AGI be a large language model?': YES=63.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=41.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?': YES=21.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)': YES=87.22%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?': YES=43.31%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2028?': YES=15.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?': YES=43.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2030?': YES=37.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?': YES=63.41%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get AGI before 2029?': YES=30.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?': YES=6.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?': YES=6.11%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?': YES=44.02%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?': YES=66.29%

Manifold consensus on 'Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?': YES=48.72%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?': YES=7.93%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?': YES=21.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?': YES=22.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be shown to be flawed by the end of August?': YES=8.59%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027?': YES=4.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI display ads to free tier users within one year?': YES=98.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?': YES=50.39%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI Astra beat Opus 5 on Artificial Analysis': YES=72.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?': YES=30.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC introduce a new process with a node size smaller than 3nm by the end of 2024?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $2 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=2.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC announce any new investment in building a US fab by the end of 2024?': YES=30.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=4.61%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC have a market cap of $1 trillion or more at the end of 2025?': YES=99.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?': YES=14.03%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any TSMC researchers win any Nobel prizes by Eoy2031': YES=18.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?': YES=11.64%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?': YES=15.37%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻': YES=48.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC incorporate room-temperature superconductors before 2029': YES=4.20%

Manifold consensus on 'Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?': YES=58.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an apocalypse cult attempt to attack a TSMC facility before 2031?': YES=26.52%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC or any Taiwanese entity be accused of knowingly assisting the explosive pagers and battery attack on Lebanon?': YES=2.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?': YES=23.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Dr. Kim (https://x.com/i_loves_deep_nn?lang=en) of TSMC get doxx'd by EOY2026?': YES=8.00%