markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 18?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=30.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-17Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?': YES=8.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=66.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Fulham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 17?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 17?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=99.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=95.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-17Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=29.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bulldog Esports vs LEO (BO3) - NLC Regular Season': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 17?': YES=98.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-17Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-17Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?': YES=73.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs': YES=29.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket