markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?': YES=27.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?': YES=33.30%

Manifold consensus on 'Will data center technicians still be necessary in 2027?': YES=93.86%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?': YES=74.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?': YES=36.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?': YES=7.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?': YES=16.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?': YES=27.26%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the pope bless a data center before 2026?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers before 2027?': YES=58.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a data center on the planet Mars by EOY 2076?': YES=34.56%

Manifold consensus on 'Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?': YES=65.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a US presidential candidate make an anti data center remark during their campaign for 2028?': YES=95.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center?': YES=17.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?': YES=34.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?': YES=6.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?': YES=36.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?': YES=34.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "data center utility cost protection" bill like the Guaranteeing Rate Insulation Act become law in 2026?': YES=32.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a second US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers in 2026?': YES=51.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will at least one U.S. state enact a binding statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers before 2027?': YES=27.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?': YES=18.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the SMH semiconductor ETF close over $365 on June 20, 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?': YES=61.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will EU achieve 15% market share in semiconductors before 2030?': YES=12.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?': YES=39.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?': YES=73.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 12 USD billion?': YES=57.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=65.89%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=66.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2027 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=66.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2028 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=66.16%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 12 USD billion?': YES=57.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 4 USD billion?': YES=65.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 6 USD billion?': YES=55.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will global SiC power semiconductor revenue for 2026 exceed 8 USD billion?': YES=57.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026': YES=30.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Will semiconductors outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?': YES=87.24%