markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=34.32%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=69.87%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia report gross margins lower than 60% in any year by 2028?': YES=16.38%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on '📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?': YES=92.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=23.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-23Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?': YES=32.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?': YES=10.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Porto win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-23Games Total: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'Games Total: O/U 3.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-08-23?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=67.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-23Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO5) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-23Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?': YES=17.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-23Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Newcastle United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Aston Villa win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: WBT vs Noir Verse (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs': YES=72.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-23Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Frosinone Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=69.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?': YES=32.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?': YES=98.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 23?': YES=99.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 3.5': YES=51.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Sporting CP win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will VfB Stuttgart win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Real Betis win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Como win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket