A prediction market on Manifold, as of June 19, 2026, assigns a 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an AI chip for...

A prediction market on Manifold, as of June 19, 2026, assigns a 77.34% probability to Apple releasing an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source). If realized, this would mark a significant product change for Apple, potentially reducing reliance on external AI silicon suppliers and enhancing on-device AI capabilities. While not a confirmed event, the high probability suggests market anticipation. For the broader semiconductor ecosystem, Apple's move could impact mobile chip vendors like Qualcomm (QCOM) if it displaces their AI processing components, while TSMC (TSM) would likely remain the manufacturer. Another prediction (source) suggests low odds (24.5%) of four major tech firms losing 60% value by 2028, indicating relative confidence in incumbents' stability. This signal is low confidence due to its speculative nature and single source, but it points to a potential shift in Apple's silicon strategy that could influence competitive dynamics in edge AI hardware.