A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source 1) shows a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for...

A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source 1) shows a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026. This high consensus indicates strong market belief in Apple's entry into edge AI hardware, potentially reducing reliance on external suppliers like Qualcomm for AI inference. A related market (source 2) gives only 24.53% chance that Apple and other mega-caps lose 60% of peak value by 2028, suggesting limited systemic risk. While these are speculative probabilities and not official announcements, the aggregated sentiment points to Apple's continued investment in custom silicon for AI, which could shift supply chain dynamics. Spillover effects: TSMC would likely manufacture the chip (positive), while Nvidia and Qualcomm face competitive pressure in mobile AI. Confidence is low due to single source type and lack of official confirmation.