A Manifold Markets prediction market indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in...

A Manifold Markets prediction market indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source). While a prediction market is not a confirmed corporate event, the high consensus reflects growing belief among informed participants that Apple is progressing toward custom AI silicon for mobile devices. If realized, this would mark a significant shift from Apple's current reliance on third-party designs (via TSMC fabrication) and potentially reduce dependence on external AI chip suppliers like Nvidia. For AAPL, an in-house AI chip could enhance performance, power efficiency, and differentiation for iPhones, positively impacting earnings. However, the timeline is distant (2026) and the source is speculative. The signal is early-stage; confirmation would require official announcements or supply chain leaks from TSMC or component orders. Spillover effects include TSMC as likely manufacturer and NVDA as competitor in edge AI silicon.