Manifold prediction-market snapshots dated 2026-08-11 price ASML's EUV monopoly as durable near term while flagging...

Manifold prediction-market snapshots dated 2026-08-11 price ASML's EUV monopoly as durable near term while flagging elevated 2027-2030 geopolitical risk. Markets put 83.77% odds on ASML revenue increasing every year for the next 5 years (source), and 79.92% odds ASML remains the world's only EUV producer through end-2026 (source), easing to 68.89% through end-2027 (source). The current-period monopoly assumption is near-consensus at 96.17% (source).

On the risk side: a coin-flip on whether the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (50.00%, source), 43.06% on the US cutting ASML off from Cymer, its EUV light-source supplier, before 2030 (source) — a supply-chain event that would disrupt lithography-system production — and 56.45% odds China invents a domestic EUV tool by Jan 1, 2030 (source). Lower-probability items: evidence ASML sold EUV to China in 2023 (6.28%, source) and CEO Wennink charged with a serious crime before 2030 (11.23%, source). The expired $1,700-in-2024 target resolves at 1.00% (source).

Net read: near-term (12-18 months) ASML positioning is solid — revenue growth and monopoly odds are high — but investors are pricing real export-control, Cymer supply-chain, and Chinese-domestic-EUV risk in the 2027-2030 window. For AI-infra planning this supports continued leading-edge capacity buildouts via ASML EUV over the next 1-2 years while flagging lithography-supply downside risk thereafter.

What the sources said

• "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%" (source)
• "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%" (source)
• "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%" (source)
• "Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%" (source)