As of June 19, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold indicate strong confidence in ASML's continued dominance in EUV...
As of June 19, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold indicate strong confidence in ASML's continued dominance in EUV lithography and sustained revenue growth.
confidence score
Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
As of June 19, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold indicate strong confidence in ASML's continued dominance in EUV lithography and sustained revenue growth. The consensus that ASML will remain the world's sole EUV machine producer through 2026 stands at 79.92% (Source 2), and through 2027 at 69.43% (Source 5). The probability of ASML's revenue increasing every year for the next five years is 83.77% (Source 3). Additionally, the chance that China possesses an ASML EUV machine is only 16.70% (Source 1), and the probability that ASML sold EUV machines to China in 2023 is merely 6.28% (Source 10), underscoring effective export controls. However, the risk of the US forcing a halt to all ASML exports to China before 2029 is at 50% (Source 8), and the chance of China inventing a domestic EUV equivalent by 2030 is 56.45% (Source 7), indicating headwinds. Overall, the market views ASML's near-term monopoly and revenue prospects as resilient, with only moderate long-term threats.
What the sources said:
- Source 2: 'Manifold consensus: YES=79.92%' (ASML remains only EUV producer through 2026)
- Source 3: 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years? YES=83.77%'
- Source 1: 'Manifold consensus: YES=16.70%' (China has an ASML EUV machine)
- Source 8: 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%'
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.