Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-03 provide a snapshot of forward-looking sentiment on ASML's EUV franchise...
Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-03 provide a snapshot of forward-looking sentiment on ASML's EUV franchise and China-related risks.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Manifold prediction markets as of 2026-08-03 provide a snapshot of forward-looking sentiment on ASML's EUV franchise and China-related risks. The market assigns a 79.9% probability ASML remains the world's only EUV producer through end-2026 (source 1) and 68.9% through end-2027 (source 4), while retrospectively rating the 2024 EUV monopoly at 96.2% (source 9).
On China, the market sees only a 15.5% chance China currently possesses an ASML EUV machine (source 2) and a 6.3% chance ASML sold EUV to China in 2023 (source 10). Yet it assigns a 56.5% probability that China invents a domestic EUV tool by January 1, 2030 (source 7). Geopolitically, the market is split on US action: 50.0% on the US forcing ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8) and 43.1% on the US cutting ASML off from Cymer before 2030 (source 5). Revenue expectations remain optimistic, with 83.8% probability ASML revenue increases every year for the next five years (source 3). Odd outliers include a low 1.0% chance of ASML hitting $1700 in 2024 (source 11) and 11.2% on the CEO being charged with a serious crime (source 6).
Net assessment: near-term monopoly and revenue resilience are highly expected, but the ~50% export-restriction probability creates a material overhang. This is a weak, sentiment-level signal, not an actual policy or corporate event, so confidence is low.
What the sources said
- Source 1: "Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026? YES=79.92%"
- Source 8: "Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029? YES=50.00%"
- Source 7: "Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030? YES=56.45%"
- Source 3: "Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years? YES=83.77%"
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.