Prediction-market consensus from Manifold Markets as of 2026-08-05 frames ASML's near-term EUV monopoly as durable but...
Prediction-market consensus from Manifold Markets as of 2026-08-05 frames ASML's near-term EUV monopoly as durable but flags rising long-term China and regulatory risks.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
ASML has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction-market consensus from Manifold Markets as of 2026-08-05 frames ASML's near-term EUV monopoly as durable but flags rising long-term China and regulatory risks. Markets put 79.92% probability on ASML remaining the world's only EUV producer through end-2026 (source 1) and 68.89% through end-2027 (source 4). Demand outlook is also strong: 83.77% probability ASML revenue grows every year for the next five years (source 3).
The bear case is visible in longer-dated questions. Markets assign 56.45% probability that China invents a domestic EUV machine by January 1, 2030 (source 7) and a 50.00% probability that the US forces ASML to halt exports to China before 2029 (source 8). Supply-chain exposure to Cymer is also flagged: 43.06% probability the US cuts ASML off from Cymer before 2030 (source 5).
Near-term China access remains unlikely: 15.54% probability China has any ASML EUV machine as of June 19, 2026 (source 2) and 6.28% probability ASML sold an EUV tool to China in 2023 (source 10). Monopoly status through 2024 is treated as effectively certain at 96.17% (source 9). Legal and market tail risks are low: 11.23% for CEO criminal charges (source 6) and 1% for $ASML reaching $1700 in 2024 (source 11).
Taken together, ASML's near-term monopoly is not in question, but the 56% probability of a domestic Chinese EUV by 2030 represents a structural long-term threat worth monitoring. This is a low-confidence sentiment signal based on one prediction-market platform, not a hard corporate event.
What the sources said
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%" (source 1)
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%" (source 7)
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%" (source 8)
- "Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%" (source 3)
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=15.54%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=68.89%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030?': YES=43.06%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=50.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.